Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.27% | 3.60% | -27.05% | 63.99% | 11.01% | 7.70% | -3.07% | 8.44% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.69% | -9.17% | 4.38% | -1.42% | -5.70% | -3.83% | -51.97% | 11.39% | 22.86% | -0.87% | 11.22% | 4.60% |
| 2024 | 1.48% | 4.14% | 0.06% | -6.91% | -2.01% | -7.39% | 16.02% | 2.48% | -4.50% | -17.30% | -3.63% | 0.97% |
| 2023 | -7.04% | -10.28% | -7.59% | 9.05% | -9.46% | 8.08% | 0.95% | -9.46% | 11.73% | 0.15% | 6.81% | 0.72% |
| 2022 | -5.63% | 6.25% | 1.90% | -4.32% | 1.10% | 3.89% | 9.88% | -3.47% | -13.29% | 9.41% | 2.26% | -5.79% |
| 2021 | 0.45% | -2.92% | 9.17% | -3.40% | 19.21% | -0.91% | -5.92% | -8.21% | -1.06% | 14.33% | 0.24% | 15.39% |
| 2020 | -15.59% | 12.05% | 12.07% | -0.50% | -4.08% | 2.68% | -6.02% | -4.88% | 1.32% | 4.31% | -2.63% | |
| Avg | 0.04% | -3.42% | -1.01% | 9.87% | 1.95% | 0.50% | -4.49% | -2.21% | 1.81% | 1.17% | 3.54% | 2.21% |
CNC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +9.9% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -4.5% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +12.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +65.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
CNC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CNC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CNC Distribution of Daily % Changes