Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.49% | 1.92% | -3.48% | 3.97% | -3.78% | 18.25% | -4.03% | -2.54% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.63% | 7.85% | 0.54% | -5.76% | 8.34% | -0.67% | -0.95% | 4.13% | 3.51% | -2.22% | 8.41% | -2.04% |
| 2024 | 7.09% | 2.89% | 9.66% | -6.83% | 1.63% | 1.16% | 10.60% | 4.91% | -0.07% | 3.46% | 13.49% | -9.58% |
| 2023 | 10.51% | 6.67% | -6.49% | -5.03% | -9.34% | 1.61% | 10.54% | -1.66% | -2.64% | -2.56% | 3.13% | 1.39% |
| 2022 | 3.42% | 4.21% | 11.31% | -9.78% | 4.24% | -6.40% | -18.19% | -0.39% | -6.98% | 15.35% | 7.39% | -7.12% |
| 2021 | -3.75% | 16.39% | 5.95% | 9.30% | 8.01% | -3.68% | 1.08% | 4.68% | -6.94% | 6.32% | -6.21% | 0.57% |
| 2020 | -11.16% | -18.46% | -12.79% | -10.41% | 9.68% | 21.71% | 1.90% | -1.05% | -9.27% | 7.93% | 15.30% | |
| Avg | 1.86% | 4.11% | -0.14% | -3.85% | -0.19% | 2.85% | 2.97% | 2.26% | -2.36% | 1.85% | 5.69% | -0.24% |
CINF - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CINF - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -3.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
CINF Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CINF Distribution of Daily % Changes