Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +15.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +30.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.7% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +78.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.67% | 38.48% | 11.34% | 35.89% | 9.98% | -15.45% | -23.14% | 13.72% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.75% | -8.69% | -24.05% | 11.14% | 19.21% | 1.59% | 14.15% | 1.22% | 55.02% | 30.38% | 7.52% | 14.52% |
| 2024 | 17.75% | 7.51% | -13.22% | -6.51% | 4.20% | 0.02% | 9.46% | 9.31% | 6.83% | 3.12% | 9.78% | 21.64% |
| 2023 | 2.04% | -7.30% | 8.92% | -12.34% | 1.52% | -9.09% | -0.68% | 18.44% | -5.44% | -10.71% | 8.65% | -1.83% |
| 2022 | -13.85% | 3.18% | -11.39% | -9.01% | -7.88% | -10.07% | 12.91% | -1.67% | -20.32% | 18.48% | -6.14% | 13.39% |
| 2021 | 1.02% | -2.29% | 4.89% | -7.77% | 4.76% | 7.60% | 2.20% | -1.74% | -10.12% | 5.73% | 10.94% | 27.79% |
| 2020 | -5.46% | 3.54% | 16.18% | 19.48% | -1.99% | 9.88% | -4.60% | -30.09% | -0.76% | 13.73% | 17.97% | |
| Avg | 2.90% | 3.63% | -2.85% | 3.94% | 7.32% | -3.91% | 3.54% | 3.49% | -0.69% | 7.71% | 7.41% | 15.58% |
CIEN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CIEN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CIEN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CIEN Distribution of Daily % Changes