Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.27% | -4.98% | -10.05% | 9.48% | -1.74% | 5.79% | -21.56% | 0.57% | ||||
| 2025 | -3.71% | 2.14% | 1.41% | -12.87% | 7.57% | 0.63% | 20.19% | 11.60% | 3.38% | 16.31% | 3.17% | 1.59% |
| 2024 | -2.66% | -11.18% | 2.78% | -6.75% | 21.65% | 2.74% | 1.06% | 16.24% | 7.28% | -6.64% | 2.47% | -1.57% |
| 2023 | 9.40% | -0.21% | 0.02% | 1.51% | -6.28% | 0.45% | 6.18% | -9.15% | -4.75% | -4.99% | 1.02% | 5.29% |
| 2022 | -2.77% | -7.62% | 12.01% | -1.45% | 2.22% | -6.11% | 9.20% | 3.12% | -15.22% | 1.46% | 2.56% | -8.08% |
| 2021 | -8.85% | 6.18% | 5.62% | 1.73% | -0.06% | -2.93% | -4.80% | 1.00% | -2.84% | 11.48% | -1.96% | 13.78% |
| 2020 | -4.60% | -3.22% | 7.10% | 14.43% | -1.95% | 18.54% | 4.89% | 4.49% | -13.47% | 6.26% | 0.45% | |
| Avg | 2.11% | -2.89% | 1.22% | -0.18% | 5.40% | -0.20% | 4.11% | 4.62% | -1.28% | 0.69% | 2.25% | 1.91% |
CHRW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CHRW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +5.4% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -2.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +7.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
CHRW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CHRW Distribution of Daily % Changes