Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.82% | -3.76% | -0.37% | 9.25% | -4.29% | 12.54% | 2.92% | 4.30% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.66% | -3.78% | -10.49% | -8.94% | 9.38% | 10.90% | 7.56% | 9.56% | 1.68% | -3.44% | 6.35% | 7.97% |
| 2024 | -0.10% | -4.01% | 15.61% | -4.86% | 3.46% | 2.10% | 19.59% | 0.89% | -4.60% | 3.59% | 14.29% | -9.10% |
| 2023 | 11.11% | -3.60% | -27.27% | 1.88% | -15.45% | 1.16% | 23.70% | -11.65% | -4.73% | -10.98% | 16.39% | 21.53% |
| 2022 | 9.76% | 1.85% | -13.53% | -13.08% | 6.08% | -13.75% | 6.39% | -2.32% | -6.33% | 19.03% | 4.69% | -7.10% |
| 2021 | 1.90% | 20.47% | 1.63% | 5.72% | 7.82% | -8.08% | -7.25% | 3.87% | 7.28% | 1.68% | -0.23% | -0.04% |
| 2020 | -14.99% | -40.64% | 21.14% | 7.64% | 4.73% | -0.14% | 4.27% | -2.28% | 9.30% | 19.85% | 9.49% | |
| Avg | 6.69% | -1.12% | -10.72% | 1.59% | 2.09% | 1.37% | 7.54% | 0.77% | -1.49% | 3.20% | 10.22% | 3.79% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -10.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +28.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
CFG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CFG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CFG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CFG Distribution of Daily % Changes