Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -14.2% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +20.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.9% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -19.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
CCL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.70% | 5.58% | -17.97% | 2.43% | 6.50% | 1.82% | -2.66% | 1.64% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.04% | -13.52% | -18.39% | -6.09% | 26.61% | 21.10% | 5.87% | 7.12% | -9.34% | -0.28% | -10.58% | 18.46% |
| 2024 | -10.57% | -4.34% | 3.03% | -9.30% | 1.75% | 24.14% | -11.00% | -0.96% | 12.00% | 19.05% | 15.59% | -2.01% |
| 2023 | 34.24% | -1.85% | -4.43% | -9.26% | 21.93% | 67.68% | 0.05% | -16.03% | -13.27% | -16.47% | 31.41% | 23.11% |
| 2022 | -1.54% | 2.62% | -0.54% | -14.44% | -19.77% | -37.68% | 4.74% | 4.42% | -25.69% | 28.88% | 9.60% | -18.83% |
| 2021 | -13.80% | 43.28% | -0.79% | 5.35% | 5.72% | -10.83% | -17.87% | 11.50% | 3.60% | -11.40% | -20.49% | 14.19% |
| 2020 | -22.24% | -60.64% | 20.73% | -1.01% | 4.32% | -15.47% | 18.73% | -7.89% | -9.68% | 45.73% | 8.41% | |
| Avg | 2.94% | 1.36% | -14.25% | -1.51% | 5.96% | 10.08% | -5.19% | 4.13% | -6.76% | 1.68% | 11.88% | 7.22% |
CCL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CCL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CCL Distribution of Daily % Changes