Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.83% | 13.04% | 6.17% | 12.95% | -6.63% | 3.60% | 9.67% | -2.82% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.45% | -1.68% | 4.79% | 6.58% | -5.27% | 16.56% | 1.93% | -4.82% | 14.32% | -9.12% | 11.16% | -3.11% |
| 2024 | -1.08% | 12.21% | 4.58% | 0.49% | 3.82% | 15.00% | 1.65% | -6.46% | 3.70% | 4.87% | 6.96% | -5.86% |
| 2023 | 5.33% | -11.85% | 4.09% | 5.89% | -1.39% | 8.08% | 3.78% | -3.27% | 11.09% | 0.30% | 1.28% | -0.24% |
| 2022 | -4.66% | 0.14% | 5.36% | 1.75% | 4.09% | -11.72% | 9.76% | 5.49% | -5.26% | 15.10% | 4.43% | -7.68% |
| 2021 | 5.14% | 7.72% | 7.05% | 2.93% | -0.61% | -11.86% | 1.75% | 3.46% | -7.88% | 1.83% | 1.44% | 1.57% |
| 2020 | 1.34% | -18.73% | 14.52% | 5.50% | -6.39% | 6.68% | 11.72% | -0.11% | -4.93% | 7.78% | -1.68% | |
| Avg | 3.50% | 2.99% | 1.90% | 6.44% | -0.07% | 1.90% | 5.03% | 1.02% | 2.64% | 1.34% | 5.51% | -2.83% |
CASY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +6.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -2.8% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +8.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +39.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
CASY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CASY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CASY Distribution of Daily % Changes