Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.7% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.83% | 6.68% | -7.82% | -8.50% | 2.03% | 20.71% | -2.96% | 2.23% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.01% | 4.71% | 6.40% | 2.93% | 9.31% | 8.78% | -7.33% | -4.15% | 5.50% | 21.94% | 11.26% | -3.18% |
| 2024 | 8.32% | 2.56% | 0.38% | -7.92% | -3.66% | -0.96% | 3.08% | 11.79% | -1.95% | -1.36% | 12.64% | -3.25% |
| 2023 | 0.49% | -1.99% | 0.38% | 8.74% | 0.24% | 15.53% | -3.28% | -4.53% | -0.58% | 5.42% | 17.67% | -5.39% |
| 2022 | 0.16% | 4.73% | 5.88% | 2.38% | -2.98% | -6.33% | 13.95% | 18.74% | -5.02% | 13.83% | 5.63% | -3.50% |
| 2021 | 0.32% | -4.11% | 18.84% | -0.67% | -7.08% | 2.70% | 4.01% | -11.60% | -4.87% | -3.34% | -3.30% | 12.44% |
| 2020 | 1.78% | -7.10% | 3.21% | 10.53% | -3.67% | 4.66% | -7.07% | -6.54% | -2.47% | 19.22% | -0.99% | |
| Avg | 3.19% | 2.05% | 2.42% | 0.03% | 1.20% | 5.25% | 1.73% | 0.53% | -2.24% | 5.67% | 10.52% | -0.65% |
CAH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CAH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CAH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CAH Distribution of Daily % Changes