Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +11.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -5.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.60% | -19.47% | 1.43% | 9.21% | -5.99% | 0.60% | 8.57% | 13.81% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.72% | -8.23% | -13.27% | -5.11% | 5.35% | 7.80% | 15.63% | -0.30% | -0.32% | -14.17% | 0.74% | 5.27% |
| 2024 | -4.94% | 3.49% | 2.78% | -10.63% | 3.34% | 2.74% | 15.49% | 0.15% | 7.57% | 10.11% | 13.91% | -9.77% |
| 2023 | 29.34% | -4.51% | -3.26% | 2.66% | -4.13% | 8.56% | 13.58% | 1.51% | 0.72% | -13.05% | 21.68% | 16.51% |
| 2022 | 1.99% | -2.35% | -0.42% | -19.00% | 15.97% | -22.55% | 13.29% | -7.97% | -10.90% | 9.95% | 0.43% | -18.94% |
| 2021 | 3.67% | 4.45% | 7.66% | 19.83% | 4.72% | 4.82% | 19.38% | 9.07% | -7.47% | 19.92% | 2.19% | -8.53% |
| 2020 | -10.99% | -15.36% | 14.64% | 9.55% | -0.25% | -5.32% | -0.62% | -1.42% | -3.41% | 19.23% | 8.83% | |
| Avg | 4.20% | -5.37% | -2.92% | 1.66% | 4.11% | 0.25% | 11.52% | 0.31% | -1.97% | 1.56% | 9.70% | -1.10% |
BX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BX Distribution of Daily % Changes