Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.3% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +3.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 188 of the year, the current YTD return is -31.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
BRO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BRO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BRO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.54% | -0.16% | -9.20% | -7.76% | -6.21% | 14.04% | 9.74% | 2.75% | -15.62% | |||
| 2025 | 2.59% | 13.42% | 4.94% | -11.09% | 2.22% | -1.80% | -17.59% | 6.28% | -3.26% | -14.98% | 1.08% | -0.91% |
| 2024 | 9.07% | 8.76% | 3.95% | -6.85% | 9.95% | -0.11% | 11.21% | 5.87% | -1.46% | 1.00% | 8.24% | -9.80% |
| 2023 | 2.79% | -4.06% | 2.41% | 12.14% | -3.03% | 10.44% | 2.34% | 5.35% | -5.75% | -0.41% | 7.66% | -4.86% |
| 2022 | -5.69% | 2.16% | 6.89% | -14.24% | -4.04% | -1.73% | 11.59% | -3.01% | -4.06% | -2.79% | 1.56% | -4.40% |
| 2021 | -9.11% | 6.75% | -0.41% | 16.34% | -1.07% | 1.18% | 2.37% | 6.89% | -4.48% | 13.81% | 2.23% | 9.11% |
| 2020 | -4.03% | -15.79% | -0.86% | 12.20% | 1.39% | 11.56% | 2.24% | -2.44% | -3.89% | 3.71% | 5.29% | |
| Avg | -1.65% | 3.26% | -1.03% | -1.76% | 1.43% | 3.35% | 4.46% | 3.77% | -5.29% | -1.21% | 4.08% | -0.93% |
BRO Distribution of Daily % Changes