Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.40% | 5.08% | -5.10% | -1.17% | 0.19% | 5.46% | 2.23% | -1.47% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.40% | 9.64% | 3.65% | 0.13% | -5.49% | -3.61% | -2.86% | 6.59% | -0.05% | -5.01% | 7.60% | -2.17% |
| 2024 | 7.59% | 6.69% | 2.72% | -5.66% | 4.45% | -1.83% | 7.79% | 8.53% | -3.29% | -2.03% | 7.12% | -6.16% |
| 2023 | 0.85% | -2.04% | 1.18% | 6.41% | -2.27% | 6.20% | 3.21% | 2.34% | -2.75% | -2.56% | 5.47% | -0.93% |
| 2022 | 4.69% | 2.69% | 9.79% | -8.52% | -2.12% | -13.60% | 10.10% | -6.59% | -4.91% | 10.51% | 7.97% | -3.04% |
| 2021 | -1.73% | 5.55% | 6.22% | 7.63% | 5.27% | -3.98% | 0.13% | 2.69% | -4.49% | 5.16% | -3.60% | 8.06% |
| 2020 | -8.06% | -11.39% | 2.48% | -0.95% | -3.81% | 9.67% | 11.37% | -2.34% | -5.18% | 13.38% | 1.29% | |
| Avg | 1.73% | 2.79% | 1.01% | 0.18% | -0.13% | -2.17% | 4.33% | 4.16% | -2.97% | 0.15% | 6.32% | -0.49% |
BRK.B - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BRK.B - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.0% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
BRK.B Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BRK.B Distribution of Daily % Changes