Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.0% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.9% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -23.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
BR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.68% | -5.70% | -12.10% | -5.23% | -0.17% | -10.31% | 12.41% | 11.08% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.37% | 1.26% | 0.91% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.45% | 1.84% | 3.28% | -6.46% | -7.46% | 3.49% | -1.74% |
| 2024 | -0.75% | -0.30% | 1.03% | -5.59% | 3.81% | -1.48% | 8.63% | -0.53% | 1.44% | -1.94% | 11.93% | -3.85% |
| 2023 | 12.10% | -6.37% | 4.67% | -0.79% | 0.90% | 13.41% | 1.38% | 10.89% | -3.43% | -4.70% | 13.58% | 6.60% |
| 2022 | -12.91% | -8.17% | 6.97% | -7.44% | 1.45% | -2.05% | 12.63% | 6.61% | -15.32% | 3.98% | -0.63% | -9.59% |
| 2021 | -7.76% | 0.83% | 7.88% | 3.61% | 0.54% | 1.64% | 7.40% | -0.73% | -2.88% | 7.06% | -5.52% | 8.84% |
| 2020 | -12.41% | -8.63% | 22.32% | 4.40% | 4.67% | 6.46% | 2.28% | -3.52% | 4.24% | 6.74% | 4.71% | |
| Avg | -2.61% | -4.41% | 0.10% | 0.98% | 1.59% | 0.91% | 7.25% | 3.63% | -5.03% | 0.20% | 4.93% | 0.83% |
BR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BR Distribution of Daily % Changes