Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +35.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.76% | -0.68% | -0.39% | 13.72% | 3.77% | 3.72% | 8.53% | 4.42% | ||||
| 2025 | 12.46% | 3.51% | -5.71% | -3.53% | 10.20% | 2.82% | 11.94% | 4.09% | 3.18% | -0.46% | 3.86% | 3.56% |
| 2024 | 7.38% | 1.14% | 2.73% | -1.25% | 5.52% | 0.47% | 9.47% | 4.84% | 5.34% | 5.52% | 8.64% | -6.16% |
| 2023 | 11.94% | 0.61% | -10.69% | -5.43% | -5.61% | 10.75% | 2.83% | -1.08% | -4.95% | 0.66% | 13.69% | 7.72% |
| 2022 | 2.63% | -10.31% | -6.62% | -14.58% | 10.82% | -10.51% | 5.09% | -4.44% | -7.25% | 10.30% | 9.00% | -0.83% |
| 2021 | -5.43% | 5.85% | 12.17% | 6.16% | 4.41% | -1.63% | 0.88% | 7.58% | -6.12% | 14.85% | -7.45% | 6.00% |
| 2020 | -10.90% | -15.59% | 12.44% | -0.99% | 3.98% | -6.45% | 3.15% | -7.14% | 0.91% | 13.85% | 8.49% | |
| Avg | 5.46% | -1.54% | -3.44% | 1.07% | 4.02% | 1.37% | 4.61% | 2.36% | -2.82% | 5.30% | 6.93% | 3.13% |
BNY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BNY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BNY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BNY Distribution of Daily % Changes