Seasonality
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BF.B - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.03% | 5.44% | -7.54% | -2.53% | -0.19% | 4.52% | 7.80% | -1.08% | ||||
| 2025 | -13.09% | 0.30% | 3.16% | 2.65% | -4.31% | -18.63% | 7.21% | 3.78% | -8.84% | 0.55% | 6.43% | -9.37% |
| 2024 | -3.85% | 9.71% | -13.96% | -7.30% | -4.16% | -5.35% | 4.56% | 0.95% | 8.44% | -10.51% | -4.43% | -9.29% |
| 2023 | 1.37% | -2.57% | -0.62% | 1.28% | -5.10% | 8.47% | 5.72% | -6.33% | -12.49% | -2.65% | 4.99% | -2.79% |
| 2022 | -7.45% | -3.26% | 3.02% | 0.63% | -1.96% | 6.41% | 5.79% | -2.05% | -8.19% | 2.15% | 7.38% | -9.80% |
| 2021 | -9.77% | -0.13% | -3.39% | 10.60% | 5.35% | -6.54% | -5.36% | -0.99% | -4.33% | 1.31% | 3.64% | 5.26% |
| 2020 | -9.21% | -9.35% | 12.05% | 6.00% | -3.19% | 8.92% | 5.52% | 3.16% | -7.45% | 15.71% | -1.30% | |
| Avg | -4.63% | 0.04% | -4.10% | 2.48% | -0.62% | -2.04% | 4.95% | 0.15% | -3.71% | -2.77% | 5.62% | -4.55% |
BF.B - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -4.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +1.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -8.7% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
BF.B Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BF.B Distribution of Daily % Changes