Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.8% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +43.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.43% | -0.30% | -9.70% | 26.88% | 3.50% | 8.33% | 1.77% | 0.00% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.61% | -8.95% | -3.33% | -2.55% | 15.35% | 11.74% | 0.63% | 6.92% | -8.61% | -2.25% | -0.09% | 7.21% |
| 2024 | -9.67% | 3.08% | 3.59% | -18.75% | 3.33% | -3.98% | 2.33% | -11.50% | 1.06% | 3.08% | 9.58% | -9.45% |
| 2023 | 18.27% | -5.54% | -7.54% | -0.22% | -10.68% | 12.51% | 9.47% | -8.55% | -6.93% | -7.28% | 8.82% | 20.12% |
| 2022 | -4.54% | -7.01% | -5.14% | -11.93% | 10.13% | -12.90% | 17.76% | -5.03% | -16.40% | 8.97% | 14.33% | -0.46% |
| 2021 | 5.20% | -0.46% | 14.17% | 1.35% | 14.03% | -5.68% | -7.63% | 9.78% | -7.55% | 5.96% | 2.89% | 4.26% |
| 2020 | -13.99% | -22.09% | 12.88% | 0.16% | 11.13% | 1.70% | 0.05% | -2.08% | -7.86% | 17.28% | 14.94% | |
| Avg | 5.05% | -4.74% | -4.29% | 1.10% | 5.12% | 3.02% | 3.72% | -1.39% | -6.75% | 0.10% | 8.80% | 6.10% |
BEN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BEN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BEN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BEN Distribution of Daily % Changes