Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.2% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.5% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +3.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 187 of the year, the current YTD return is +24.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
BDX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BDX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BDX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.85% | 10.32% | -10.34% | -5.21% | -1.29% | 3.59% | 9.44% | 13.58% | -4.16% | |||
| 2025 | 9.14% | -8.91% | 2.03% | -9.59% | -16.66% | 0.41% | 3.48% | 8.26% | -2.48% | -4.52% | 8.57% | 0.57% |
| 2024 | -2.06% | -1.37% | 5.48% | -5.19% | -1.12% | 1.15% | 3.14% | 0.56% | -0.13% | -3.11% | -5.00% | 2.73% |
| 2023 | -0.82% | -7.01% | 5.95% | 6.77% | -8.53% | 9.60% | 5.53% | 0.30% | -7.17% | -2.22% | -6.57% | 3.66% |
| 2022 | 1.06% | 6.74% | -1.62% | -4.75% | 3.48% | -3.30% | -0.90% | 3.32% | -11.43% | 5.90% | 5.67% | 2.37% |
| 2021 | 4.62% | -7.88% | 1.17% | 2.33% | -2.78% | 0.89% | 5.16% | -1.58% | -2.02% | -2.53% | -1.02% | 6.42% |
| 2020 | -13.58% | -3.06% | 9.91% | -2.22% | -2.78% | 17.58% | -13.71% | -3.83% | -0.67% | 1.61% | 6.92% | |
| Avg | 2.80% | -3.10% | -0.06% | -0.82% | -4.16% | 1.36% | 6.21% | 1.53% | -4.46% | -1.19% | 0.54% | 3.78% |
BDX Distribution of Daily % Changes