Seasonality
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BBY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.4% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +8.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +31.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.73% | -4.81% | 5.18% | -5.78% | 28.86% | -1.36% | 13.68% | 0.19% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.07% | 4.72% | -17.09% | -9.40% | -0.61% | 2.69% | -3.08% | 13.19% | 4.01% | 8.62% | -3.48% | -14.46% |
| 2024 | -7.40% | 11.57% | 2.66% | -10.23% | 15.18% | 0.38% | 2.65% | 16.04% | 3.87% | -12.46% | -0.48% | -3.64% |
| 2023 | 10.61% | -6.32% | -4.70% | -4.79% | -2.48% | 14.13% | 1.34% | -7.95% | -7.96% | -3.81% | 6.17% | 11.74% |
| 2022 | -2.28% | -2.66% | -5.10% | -1.07% | -8.75% | -19.58% | 18.10% | -8.18% | -9.30% | 8.00% | 24.69% | -4.94% |
| 2021 | 9.05% | -7.78% | 15.12% | 1.27% | -0.03% | -0.47% | -2.29% | 3.70% | -8.70% | 15.64% | -12.58% | -4.28% |
| 2020 | -10.67% | -23.96% | 34.61% | 1.77% | 12.51% | 14.12% | 11.37% | 0.86% | 0.23% | -2.47% | -7.78% | |
| Avg | 1.22% | -2.28% | -3.98% | 0.66% | 4.85% | 1.19% | 6.36% | 4.70% | -2.87% | 2.70% | 1.98% | -3.89% |
BBY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BBY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BBY Distribution of Daily % Changes