Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +1.5% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -7.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a -1.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +45.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02% | 1.54% | -17.53% | 4.64% | 6.88% | 13.53% | 22.70% | 2.18% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.66% | 6.50% | -0.81% | -8.94% | -1.60% | -0.72% | -28.14% | 14.26% | -7.78% | -18.88% | 1.52% | 1.97% |
| 2024 | 0.08% | 6.51% | 4.45% | -5.55% | -14.82% | -1.88% | 7.09% | 6.73% | 0.08% | -5.98% | -5.09% | -13.50% |
| 2023 | -10.36% | -11.94% | 1.53% | 17.55% | -14.60% | 12.69% | -0.72% | -9.61% | -7.04% | -14.07% | 12.15% | 7.15% |
| 2022 | -0.47% | -0.22% | -8.74% | -8.36% | 7.02% | -15.21% | -8.67% | -2.05% | -5.79% | 0.91% | 4.01% | -9.37% |
| 2021 | -4.25% | 1.44% | 8.56% | 1.60% | -4.17% | -1.64% | -3.91% | -1.46% | 5.91% | -1.83% | -5.56% | 15.54% |
| 2020 | -6.21% | -2.73% | 9.35% | 1.39% | -4.08% | 0.33% | 1.09% | -7.64% | -3.54% | -1.93% | 5.82% | |
| Avg | 0.28% | -0.34% | -2.18% | 1.47% | -2.84% | 0.38% | -1.62% | 1.49% | -3.71% | -7.23% | 0.85% | 1.27% |
BAX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BAX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BAX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BAX Distribution of Daily % Changes