Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +4.4% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -3.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +5.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -16.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.22% | 1.38% | -10.06% | 9.66% | -20.76% | 8.88% | -5.62% | 0.29% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.63% | 4.26% | 9.15% | -1.32% | -0.79% | -0.56% | 1.51% | 11.41% | 2.18% | -14.35% | 7.62% | -14.23% |
| 2024 | 6.83% | 8.83% | 4.84% | -6.20% | -6.31% | 7.01% | 5.72% | 1.52% | -0.99% | -4.48% | 5.34% | 1.02% |
| 2023 | -1.11% | 1.96% | -1.14% | 8.35% | -10.38% | 4.46% | -0.47% | 2.00% | 0.34% | -2.47% | 5.36% | -0.93% |
| 2022 | -5.25% | -6.19% | 9.72% | -4.36% | 5.33% | 4.34% | -0.55% | -0.85% | 1.07% | 18.25% | 1.82% | -4.37% |
| 2021 | -5.66% | 3.72% | 21.07% | 4.26% | -3.93% | 6.09% | 8.80% | -4.58% | 9.61% | 5.11% | 1.81% | 15.37% |
| 2020 | -2.41% | -18.06% | 20.61% | 12.50% | -1.72% | 7.03% | -0.92% | -1.56% | -4.13% | 0.77% | 4.20% | |
| Avg | 1.44% | 1.65% | 2.22% | 4.43% | -3.48% | 4.07% | 2.35% | 1.43% | 1.78% | -0.35% | 3.78% | 0.18% |
AZO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AZO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AZO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AZO Distribution of Daily % Changes