Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.85% | 12.16% | -21.70% | -5.40% | 11.69% | 24.94% | -5.86% | 16.12% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.74% | -18.97% | -0.47% | 16.61% | 22.35% | 10.34% | -8.75% | -1.09% | -3.97% | 2.03% | -26.23% | 5.14% |
| 2024 | -3.59% | 23.41% | 1.79% | 0.25% | -10.20% | 4.46% | 1.96% | 21.65% | 9.49% | 5.98% | 52.77% | -8.14% |
| 2023 | 17.78% | 2.49% | 12.25% | -6.29% | -8.45% | 1.15% | -4.71% | 14.51% | -6.54% | 2.76% | 12.41% | 12.38% |
| 2022 | -10.87% | 0.23% | -1.80% | -18.54% | -9.66% | -8.08% | 18.27% | 5.89% | -0.80% | 25.65% | 26.53% | -9.84% |
| 2021 | 33.98% | 0.81% | -13.94% | 6.45% | -7.27% | 25.76% | 5.21% | -2.23% | -3.77% | 2.82% | -6.21% | -6.99% |
| 2020 | 0.73% | -8.53% | 2.74% | 4.47% | 29.19% | -15.29% | 3.07% | 5.86% | 9.04% | 27.09% | -2.51% | |
| Avg | 5.36% | 2.98% | -4.63% | -0.60% | 0.42% | 12.54% | -1.31% | 6.97% | 0.05% | 8.05% | 14.39% | -1.66% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +20.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
AXON - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AXON Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AXON Distribution of Daily % Changes
AXON - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years