Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +14.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +26.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -2.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.28% | -3.55% | -2.94% | 34.87% | 7.03% | -15.31% | 3.05% | 0.95% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.56% | -9.87% | -15.79% | 14.96% | 25.77% | 14.14% | 6.55% | 1.26% | 11.13% | 12.04% | 9.02% | -13.95% |
| 2024 | 5.71% | 10.21% | 2.35% | -1.90% | 2.17% | 21.23% | 0.08% | 1.33% | 6.29% | -1.58% | -4.53% | 43.42% |
| 2023 | 4.63% | 1.59% | 8.73% | -2.34% | 28.96% | 7.93% | 3.60% | 2.70% | -9.51% | 1.30% | 10.03% | 21.14% |
| 2022 | -11.95% | 0.27% | 7.92% | -11.96% | 4.64% | -15.56% | 10.22% | -6.79% | -10.29% | 5.88% | 17.21% | 2.32% |
| 2021 | 2.89% | 4.30% | -0.55% | -1.61% | 3.54% | 1.75% | 1.80% | 2.43% | -1.75% | 9.64% | 4.14% | 20.95% |
| 2020 | -10.66% | -11.55% | 14.56% | 7.23% | 9.47% | 0.36% | 9.60% | 5.90% | -4.03% | 14.86% | 9.96% | |
| Avg | -1.26% | -1.10% | -1.69% | 6.65% | 11.34% | 3.38% | 3.67% | 1.75% | 0.29% | 3.87% | 8.45% | 13.97% |
AVGO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AVGO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AVGO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AVGO Distribution of Daily % Changes