Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -5.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
ATO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.77% | 12.92% | -1.11% | 2.85% | -10.47% | 1.86% | 0.30% | -1.66% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.33% | 7.37% | 1.61% | 3.91% | -3.17% | -0.37% | 1.17% | 7.10% | 2.78% | 0.57% | 3.30% | -4.96% |
| 2024 | -1.69% | -0.20% | 5.28% | -0.82% | -0.98% | 0.63% | 9.63% | 2.87% | 6.10% | 0.05% | 9.67% | -7.96% |
| 2023 | 4.88% | -3.41% | -0.40% | 1.58% | 1.65% | 0.92% | 4.62% | -4.12% | -8.64% | 1.63% | 6.47% | 1.84% |
| 2022 | 2.34% | 3.08% | 8.82% | -5.10% | 3.20% | -3.62% | 8.29% | -6.06% | -10.17% | 4.61% | 13.52% | -6.76% |
| 2021 | -6.74% | -4.29% | 16.83% | 4.80% | -3.65% | -3.09% | 2.58% | -0.46% | -9.55% | 4.44% | -1.25% | 16.00% |
| 2020 | -11.35% | -3.89% | 2.76% | 1.39% | -3.11% | 6.44% | -5.29% | -4.24% | -4.10% | 5.27% | -0.48% | |
| Avg | 0.06% | 0.59% | 3.88% | 1.43% | -1.72% | -0.97% | 4.72% | -0.99% | -3.95% | 1.20% | 6.16% | -0.39% |
ATO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ATO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ATO Distribution of Daily % Changes