Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.01% | 2.07% | -8.94% | 9.18% | 12.08% | 23.36% | -18.01% | 13.20% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.67% | -3.89% | -6.55% | 1.13% | 10.28% | 8.77% | -13.09% | 6.90% | 30.36% | 9.61% | 0.07% | 0.93% |
| 2024 | 14.92% | 9.60% | 1.97% | -9.91% | 10.07% | 6.50% | -8.24% | -3.50% | -7.81% | -19.10% | 2.09% | 0.94% |
| 2023 | 20.94% | -6.32% | 10.20% | -6.44% | 13.85% | 0.25% | -1.15% | -7.59% | -10.88% | 1.72% | 14.48% | 10.70% |
| 2022 | -14.94% | -1.58% | 0.21% | -15.59% | 2.92% | -17.42% | 20.71% | -14.51% | -15.22% | 13.74% | 29.11% | -10.15% |
| 2021 | 9.52% | 6.16% | 8.86% | 4.98% | 4.52% | 2.28% | 10.99% | 8.65% | -10.56% | 9.10% | -2.38% | 0.58% |
| 2020 | -1.41% | -5.45% | 10.80% | 14.24% | 11.69% | -3.89% | 5.78% | -1.31% | -2.18% | 21.65% | 11.42% | |
| Avg | 11.69% | 0.66% | 0.04% | -0.84% | 9.71% | 5.06% | -1.81% | -0.71% | -2.57% | 2.15% | 10.84% | 2.40% |
ASML - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +11.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.6% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +43.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
ASML - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ASML Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ASML Distribution of Daily % Changes