Seasonality
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Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 3Y.
Feb averages +34.4% with a 67% win rate across 3 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -19.0% with only a 0% win rate across 3 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +63.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +37.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 3Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +101.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.61% | 20.97% | 18.70% | 39.03% | 67.98% | 0.36% | -32.40% | 16.58% | ||||
| 2025 | 29.34% | -17.46% | -18.91% | 6.80% | 9.20% | 29.87% | -12.59% | -2.17% | 2.30% | 20.02% | -20.17% | -19.36% |
| 2024 | -5.96% | 99.58% | -11.38% | -19.03% | 19.08% | 35.76% | -11.89% | -7.83% | 7.62% | -1.20% | -4.96% | -8.14% |
| 2023 | -7.90% | 24.77% | 22.19% | |||||||||
| Avg | 6.59% | 34.36% | -3.86% | 8.93% | 32.08% | 22.00% | -18.96% | -5.00% | 4.96% | 3.64% | -0.12% | -1.77% |
ARM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 3 years
ARM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
3 years of data
ARM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2023 to 2026
ARM Distribution of Daily % Changes