Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +11.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.6% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -23.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.40% | -25.16% | -1.27% | 7.61% | 9.45% | -12.50% | 15.07% | 12.44% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.97% | -13.76% | -13.56% | 4.04% | 8.50% | 5.36% | 7.12% | -3.41% | -10.22% | -6.99% | 5.47% | 3.72% |
| 2024 | 2.15% | 9.18% | 0.96% | 0.08% | 5.32% | -4.25% | 14.95% | -4.44% | 7.12% | 7.60% | 5.40% | 0.68% |
| 2023 | 21.26% | -2.84% | 4.55% | 4.97% | -0.57% | 11.54% | 2.98% | 4.25% | 0.18% | -4.16% | 13.86% | 6.66% |
| 2022 | -1.91% | 1.72% | 1.04% | -18.48% | 7.48% | -19.27% | 26.01% | 3.48% | -15.77% | 22.41% | 3.38% | -11.95% |
| 2021 | -4.02% | 15.10% | 8.71% | -6.26% | 5.06% | 16.17% | 12.61% | 7.78% | -3.76% | 14.78% | -4.22% | 0.74% |
| 2020 | -4.08% | -9.45% | 8.47% | 12.55% | 6.25% | 0.60% | 1.28% | 0.92% | 4.65% | 6.50% | 5.29% | |
| Avg | 3.68% | -2.84% | -1.29% | 0.06% | 6.83% | 0.47% | 11.34% | 1.49% | -3.59% | 6.38% | 5.06% | 0.86% |
ARES - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ARES - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ARES Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ARES Distribution of Daily % Changes