Seasonality
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ARE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -6.3% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +0.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +15.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.65% | -1.10% | -12.74% | -12.73% | 22.64% | 7.78% | -2.65% | -6.43% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.20% | 5.04% | -8.27% | -21.46% | -3.40% | 5.37% | 5.23% | 7.86% | 2.70% | -30.14% | -7.82% | -7.47% |
| 2024 | -4.63% | 3.17% | 4.42% | -10.12% | 2.70% | -0.60% | 0.27% | 1.94% | 0.39% | -6.06% | -1.18% | -10.29% |
| 2023 | 10.35% | -6.82% | -15.32% | -1.12% | -8.63% | 1.14% | 10.74% | -7.43% | -12.87% | -6.96% | 17.47% | 17.03% |
| 2022 | -12.61% | -2.79% | 6.86% | -9.49% | -8.90% | -11.89% | 14.31% | -7.47% | -7.84% | 3.65% | 7.10% | -5.59% |
| 2021 | -6.23% | -4.44% | 3.55% | 10.23% | -1.57% | 2.69% | 10.66% | 2.50% | -6.87% | 6.84% | -1.99% | 12.02% |
| 2020 | -6.94% | -9.11% | 14.61% | -2.15% | 6.25% | 9.43% | -5.16% | -4.35% | -5.30% | 8.06% | 9.53% | |
| Avg | -0.28% | -1.98% | -4.37% | -4.30% | 0.10% | 1.53% | 6.86% | -1.29% | -4.81% | -6.33% | 3.61% | 2.54% |
ARE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ARE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ARE Distribution of Daily % Changes