Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +6.5% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -10.0% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -34.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.45% | -2.92% | -5.58% | -13.22% | 12.74% | -9.66% | -8.00% | -12.24% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.21% | 4.33% | -8.63% | -4.10% | 17.09% | 2.11% | 0.62% | 15.87% | 8.41% | -5.94% | -4.38% | -1.88% |
| 2024 | -9.35% | -2.26% | 0.20% | -10.86% | 17.27% | -15.42% | -1.46% | 3.08% | 0.67% | -21.08% | -2.29% | 8.91% |
| 2023 | 21.43% | 2.82% | -3.52% | -8.32% | -14.37% | 15.91% | 7.25% | -7.34% | -2.82% | -11.55% | -5.00% | 8.31% |
| 2022 | -17.20% | -5.23% | -7.52% | -11.12% | -0.15% | -16.16% | 17.76% | -10.93% | -16.29% | 16.44% | 17.13% | -12.69% |
| 2021 | 2.54% | 12.16% | -7.97% | 4.34% | 4.54% | 4.59% | 6.05% | -8.79% | -2.12% | 16.06% | -7.25% | 2.87% |
| 2020 | -7.64% | -36.96% | 41.25% | 8.34% | 3.41% | -0.22% | 10.77% | 6.46% | 5.25% | 23.02% | 9.76% | |
| Avg | 0.03% | 0.18% | -10.00% | -0.29% | 6.49% | -2.17% | 3.14% | 0.44% | -0.95% | -0.14% | 3.54% | 2.55% |
APTV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
APTV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
APTV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
APTV Distribution of Daily % Changes