Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -7.5% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +26.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.12% | 1.16% | 5.38% | 3.94% | -7.14% | 5.23% | 1.21% | 4.77% | ||||
| 2025 | 16.30% | -5.70% | -6.72% | -7.52% | 2.88% | 1.13% | 2.72% | 2.16% | -7.27% | -10.46% | 7.61% | -5.37% |
| 2024 | -6.61% | -8.47% | 4.28% | -2.45% | 12.85% | -3.24% | 2.95% | 5.69% | 6.77% | 4.92% | 7.66% | -13.25% |
| 2023 | 3.97% | -10.77% | 1.06% | 2.49% | -8.57% | 11.96% | 1.94% | -3.22% | -3.50% | -0.34% | -4.21% | 1.85% |
| 2022 | -7.28% | -16.24% | 6.44% | -6.34% | 5.17% | -1.65% | 3.22% | 1.70% | -7.16% | 7.59% | 23.87% | -0.09% |
| 2021 | -2.36% | -4.18% | 10.65% | 2.54% | 3.88% | -3.50% | 1.16% | -7.39% | -4.42% | 17.06% | -4.13% | 6.38% |
| 2020 | -8.00% | -8.51% | 13.01% | 7.12% | 0.49% | 18.71% | 1.96% | 2.38% | -7.26% | 1.41% | -1.99% | |
| Avg | 2.52% | -7.46% | 1.80% | 0.81% | 2.31% | 1.49% | 4.56% | 0.15% | -2.20% | 1.92% | 5.37% | -2.08% |
APD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
APD Distribution of Daily % Changes
APD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
APD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years