Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.8% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.52% | -10.56% | -5.47% | 6.84% | -5.78% | 2.93% | 18.98% | 4.34% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.05% | -0.84% | -9.90% | -2.70% | 8.47% | 4.81% | -2.91% | -0.33% | -4.58% | -7.83% | 1.01% | 7.59% |
| 2024 | 1.84% | 5.67% | 7.63% | -6.08% | 6.41% | -2.16% | 0.67% | 4.89% | 4.53% | 8.62% | 12.81% | -7.24% |
| 2023 | 12.45% | -1.72% | -10.61% | -0.45% | -1.71% | 11.29% | 4.90% | -2.75% | -2.34% | -4.58% | 12.84% | 7.45% |
| 2022 | 0.88% | -1.14% | 0.19% | -11.61% | 4.54% | -13.97% | 13.56% | -0.25% | -5.99% | 22.69% | 7.82% | -6.20% |
| 2021 | 1.82% | 12.35% | 5.07% | 11.16% | 0.99% | -4.22% | 3.49% | 6.42% | -3.22% | 14.39% | -3.79% | 4.16% |
| 2020 | -14.11% | -27.47% | 12.16% | 22.91% | 7.12% | 2.39% | 2.75% | -1.72% | 4.36% | 15.88% | 4.91% | |
| Avg | 4.43% | -1.48% | -5.79% | 1.33% | 5.12% | 0.83% | 5.87% | 1.79% | -2.22% | 6.27% | 7.76% | 1.78% |
AMP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AMP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AMP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AMP Distribution of Daily % Changes