Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +5.2% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +5.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
AMCR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.12% | 10.88% | -17.92% | -4.30% | 3.75% | 11.67% | 3.53% | 2.56% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.29% | 5.42% | -4.15% | -5.15% | 0.42% | 0.88% | 1.74% | -7.70% | -5.21% | -3.42% | 7.85% | -2.11% |
| 2024 | -2.18% | -2.59% | 4.97% | -5.99% | 15.19% | -3.83% | 7.67% | 8.64% | 0.15% | -1.77% | -3.20% | -11.56% |
| 2023 | 1.26% | -6.61% | 2.15% | -3.60% | -11.06% | 3.53% | 2.81% | -5.07% | -4.72% | -2.95% | 8.08% | 1.69% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | -2.18% | -2.58% | 4.68% | 11.48% | -5.11% | 4.18% | -7.26% | -9.74% | 7.92% | 7.75% | -3.56% |
| 2021 | -7.05% | 1.04% | 6.76% | 0.60% | 1.43% | -2.88% | 0.87% | 11.16% | -8.96% | 4.14% | -5.26% | 6.10% |
| 2020 | -11.99% | -11.84% | 10.47% | 15.15% | 0.00% | 0.88% | 7.38% | 0.94% | -5.61% | 9.71% | 3.88% | |
| Avg | 0.24% | -0.86% | -3.23% | -0.47% | 5.19% | 0.61% | 3.10% | 1.19% | -4.59% | -0.28% | 4.15% | -0.93% |
AMCR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AMCR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AMCR Distribution of Daily % Changes