Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +15.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -6.3% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +21.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +13.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is +50.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
AMAT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AMAT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AMAT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.42% | 15.65% | -8.20% | 15.42% | 14.23% | 60.65% | -29.78% | -9.61% | 3.49% | |||
| 2025 | 10.90% | -12.15% | -8.19% | 3.85% | 4.30% | 16.79% | -1.64% | -10.46% | 27.36% | 13.85% | 8.43% | 1.88% |
| 2024 | 1.38% | 22.92% | 2.29% | -3.68% | 8.47% | 9.72% | -10.08% | -6.86% | 2.43% | -10.13% | -3.56% | -6.91% |
| 2023 | 14.49% | 4.42% | 5.75% | -7.98% | 18.24% | 8.43% | 4.88% | 0.99% | -9.37% | -4.41% | 13.41% | 8.21% |
| 2022 | -12.19% | -2.71% | -1.79% | -16.27% | 6.55% | -22.43% | 16.49% | -11.01% | -12.91% | 7.76% | 24.44% | -11.15% |
| 2021 | 12.03% | 22.48% | 13.04% | -0.67% | 4.27% | 3.09% | -1.73% | -3.25% | -4.74% | 6.15% | 7.89% | 6.91% |
| 2020 | 0.54% | -21.16% | 8.42% | 13.53% | 7.60% | 6.42% | -3.93% | -3.49% | -0.37% | 39.67% | 4.63% | |
| Avg | 8.67% | 7.31% | -2.61% | -0.13% | 9.94% | 11.98% | -2.21% | -6.31% | -0.12% | 2.14% | 15.05% | 0.59% |
AMAT Distribution of Daily % Changes