Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -1.1% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +6.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -14.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.64% | -8.49% | -4.80% | -4.70% | -2.56% | 14.53% | 8.65% | 0.72% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.33% | 11.90% | 2.42% | -7.11% | 8.34% | -7.68% | -10.27% | 5.40% | 2.53% | -19.45% | -0.75% | 4.79% |
| 2024 | 3.24% | 5.33% | 2.50% | -6.14% | 7.94% | 2.61% | 9.32% | 3.20% | -3.63% | -0.06% | 11.04% | -8.91% |
| 2023 | 3.81% | -4.28% | 2.41% | 8.76% | -3.72% | 9.91% | -2.17% | 7.56% | -1.11% | 3.32% | 5.97% | -9.69% |
| 2022 | -6.91% | 0.16% | 10.73% | -3.50% | -3.89% | 1.00% | 9.78% | 1.44% | -5.43% | 9.26% | 6.43% | -5.07% |
| 2021 | -6.71% | 3.80% | 4.56% | 16.17% | 1.15% | -4.14% | -0.55% | 3.09% | 3.85% | 12.80% | -2.84% | 4.46% |
| 2020 | -4.95% | -16.04% | -3.69% | 20.10% | 3.88% | 10.26% | -2.04% | 0.69% | -1.77% | 11.28% | 7.61% | |
| Avg | -0.65% | 0.50% | 0.26% | -0.03% | 3.91% | 2.87% | 3.57% | 3.11% | -0.52% | 0.68% | 5.19% | -1.13% |
AJG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AJG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AJG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AJG Distribution of Daily % Changes