Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.13% | -3.19% | -5.13% | 8.48% | 5.33% | 8.27% | 3.97% | 1.14% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.92% | -3.03% | 0.89% | -8.11% | 5.31% | -2.32% | -5.16% | 15.11% | 0.83% | -2.25% | 7.76% | 5.97% |
| 2024 | -0.32% | 8.50% | 3.74% | -7.35% | -0.53% | -3.76% | 5.18% | 12.28% | 1.65% | -3.60% | 18.47% | -5.78% |
| 2023 | 6.02% | -3.39% | -5.75% | 2.55% | -2.00% | 4.78% | 6.99% | 4.10% | 3.05% | 3.71% | 13.34% | 0.28% |
| 2022 | -2.15% | 11.74% | 7.14% | 0.03% | -2.49% | -2.17% | 1.70% | -9.46% | -8.34% | -6.48% | -5.10% | -2.46% |
| 2021 | -0.55% | -8.55% | 15.05% | 9.76% | 3.99% | -3.08% | 1.04% | 8.22% | -7.27% | 2.26% | -5.31% | 2.47% |
| 2020 | -7.22% | -13.68% | 2.07% | -2.84% | 0.69% | 4.05% | 13.69% | -0.21% | 2.52% | 4.33% | 5.50% | |
| Avg | 0.47% | -0.74% | 0.32% | 1.06% | 0.97% | 0.34% | 2.54% | 7.32% | -1.71% | -0.64% | 5.58% | 1.00% |
AIZ - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +7.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.7% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +8.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
AIZ - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AIZ Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AIZ Distribution of Daily % Changes