Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -3.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.05% | -13.15% | -4.43% | 4.31% | 4.67% | 1.72% | 18.98% | 2.44% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.51% | 4.02% | -2.55% | -1.61% | 8.29% | -4.79% | 0.36% | -1.76% | -2.97% | -11.31% | -1.92% | 1.41% |
| 2024 | 5.50% | 2.18% | 0.02% | -3.14% | 1.25% | -1.98% | 10.03% | 5.06% | 0.80% | 4.52% | 6.12% | -4.13% |
| 2023 | -5.46% | -2.65% | 1.85% | -1.18% | -5.00% | 5.78% | 12.50% | 2.97% | -5.04% | -9.29% | 5.36% | 1.94% |
| 2022 | -16.39% | -0.84% | 11.85% | -4.11% | 2.18% | -5.34% | 14.80% | 1.36% | -7.05% | 6.86% | 9.28% | -9.13% |
| 2021 | -6.29% | 5.39% | 8.86% | -0.79% | 4.83% | 1.80% | 5.54% | -0.28% | -3.93% | 12.29% | 2.85% | 7.27% |
| 2020 | -9.71% | -11.12% | 7.32% | -0.14% | 2.23% | -10.73% | 4.65% | 0.96% | 13.24% | 10.08% | 1.88% | |
| Avg | -3.86% | -2.11% | 0.64% | 0.11% | 2.30% | -0.08% | 7.35% | 2.00% | -2.87% | 2.72% | 5.29% | -0.13% |
ADP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ADP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ADP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ADP Distribution of Daily % Changes