Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.63% | 14.45% | -10.30% | 26.44% | 2.88% | -3.77% | -7.49% | 5.98% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.27% | 8.58% | -11.96% | -3.35% | 9.78% | 11.74% | -5.63% | 11.88% | -1.85% | -4.71% | 13.33% | 2.57% |
| 2024 | -3.12% | -0.28% | 3.60% | 1.43% | 16.89% | -2.27% | 1.37% | 1.50% | -1.60% | -3.07% | -2.27% | -2.15% |
| 2023 | 4.54% | 7.50% | 7.49% | -8.79% | -1.22% | 10.16% | 2.42% | -8.90% | -3.22% | -10.14% | 16.56% | 8.79% |
| 2022 | -6.71% | -1.77% | 3.05% | -6.54% | 9.59% | -13.25% | 17.71% | -11.46% | -8.04% | 2.35% | 20.54% | -4.16% |
| 2021 | -0.27% | 6.22% | -0.47% | -1.24% | 7.92% | 4.59% | -2.75% | -2.26% | 2.78% | 3.59% | 3.90% | -2.11% |
| 2020 | -0.10% | -17.79% | 22.25% | 3.62% | 8.58% | -6.35% | 2.29% | -0.12% | 1.53% | 17.34% | 6.69% | |
| Avg | 1.47% | 4.94% | -3.77% | 4.31% | 7.07% | 2.26% | -0.10% | -1.16% | -2.01% | -1.74% | 11.57% | 1.60% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +13.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +34.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
ADI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ADI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ADI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ADI Distribution of Daily % Changes