Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.5% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -10.6% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +8.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -12.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -16.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.21% | -10.52% | -7.37% | 1.24% | 5.33% | -20.91% | 22.14% | 5.44% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.63% | 0.25% | -12.55% | -2.23% | 10.70% | -6.80% | -7.54% | -0.28% | -1.11% | -3.53% | -5.93% | 9.33% |
| 2024 | 3.55% | -9.31% | -9.94% | -8.28% | -3.90% | 24.91% | -0.70% | 4.13% | -9.86% | -7.67% | 7.92% | -13.81% |
| 2023 | 10.05% | -12.53% | 18.96% | -2.03% | 10.66% | 17.04% | 11.69% | 2.41% | -8.84% | 4.35% | 14.84% | -2.36% |
| 2022 | -5.78% | -12.47% | -2.58% | -13.10% | 5.18% | -12.11% | 12.04% | -8.94% | -26.31% | 15.73% | 8.30% | -2.44% |
| 2021 | -8.27% | 0.20% | 3.42% | 6.94% | -0.74% | 16.06% | 6.15% | 6.77% | -13.26% | 12.96% | 3.00% | -15.35% |
| 2020 | -1.71% | -7.79% | 11.12% | 9.32% | 12.60% | 2.07% | 15.55% | -4.47% | -8.84% | 7.02% | 4.52% | |
| Avg | -3.05% | -6.58% | -2.55% | -0.90% | 5.22% | 4.40% | 6.55% | 3.27% | -10.64% | 2.17% | 5.86% | -3.35% |
ADBE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ADBE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ADBE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ADBE Distribution of Daily % Changes