Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -7.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -26.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
ACN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ACN Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.74% | -20.83% | -5.00% | -9.11% | 4.68% | -33.48% | 34.94% | 6.61% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.89% | -9.47% | -10.46% | -3.66% | 5.91% | -5.66% | -10.19% | -2.67% | -5.14% | 1.42% | -0.04% | 7.32% |
| 2024 | 4.07% | 3.00% | -7.52% | -12.85% | -6.19% | 7.48% | 9.45% | 3.43% | 3.37% | -2.05% | 5.09% | -2.92% |
| 2023 | 5.00% | -4.84% | 7.63% | -1.55% | 9.14% | 0.87% | 2.89% | 2.35% | -5.15% | -2.86% | 12.13% | 5.33% |
| 2022 | -14.49% | -10.62% | 6.71% | -10.67% | -0.63% | -6.97% | 10.70% | -5.81% | -10.80% | 10.83% | 6.00% | -11.33% |
| 2021 | -7.07% | 3.71% | 10.10% | 5.29% | -2.69% | 4.48% | 8.07% | 5.94% | -4.94% | 12.48% | -0.39% | 15.99% |
| 2020 | -12.00% | -9.60% | 13.94% | 8.87% | 6.50% | 5.07% | 6.74% | -5.81% | -3.64% | 14.84% | 4.87% | |
| Avg | -0.72% | -7.29% | -1.16% | -2.66% | 2.73% | -3.83% | 8.70% | 1.66% | -4.75% | 2.70% | 6.27% | 3.21% |
ACN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ACN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years