Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.1% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.6% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +11.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.55% | 1.91% | -3.93% | 6.92% | 15.11% | -7.27% | 6.76% | -0.88% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.76% | 2.59% | -8.15% | -4.34% | -5.36% | 2.15% | 1.17% | 11.96% | 9.69% | 6.18% | 3.24% | -2.51% |
| 2024 | -4.22% | -1.85% | -5.13% | -0.67% | 13.02% | 9.56% | 5.44% | 3.24% | 1.75% | -3.04% | 5.17% | 5.52% |
| 2023 | 11.05% | 2.32% | 11.86% | 2.90% | 4.61% | 9.43% | 1.28% | -4.24% | -8.87% | -0.26% | 11.38% | 1.36% |
| 2022 | -1.57% | -5.41% | 5.75% | -9.71% | -5.45% | -8.14% | 18.86% | -3.12% | -12.10% | 10.96% | -3.30% | -12.23% |
| 2021 | -0.55% | -7.97% | 0.73% | 7.62% | -5.05% | 9.91% | 6.50% | 4.25% | -6.80% | 5.87% | 10.51% | 7.42% |
| 2020 | -11.47% | -6.98% | 15.54% | 8.51% | 14.74% | 16.51% | 21.66% | -10.25% | -6.00% | 9.55% | 11.46% | |
| Avg | -0.93% | -2.84% | -0.83% | 2.61% | 3.63% | 4.34% | 8.07% | 5.62% | -4.43% | 2.28% | 6.09% | 1.84% |
AAPL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AAPL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AAPL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AAPL Distribution of Daily % Changes