Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -5.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +16.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
A - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.46% | -9.32% | -5.88% | 1.38% | 17.29% | -1.80% | 4.17% | 7.34% | ||||
| 2025 | 12.79% | -15.58% | -8.55% | -7.82% | 4.01% | 5.44% | -2.51% | 9.45% | 2.35% | 14.03% | 4.88% | -11.36% |
| 2024 | -6.42% | 5.58% | 5.93% | -5.67% | -4.84% | -0.60% | 9.28% | 1.07% | 3.89% | -12.10% | 5.88% | -2.45% |
| 2023 | 1.62% | -6.65% | -2.56% | -1.94% | -14.59% | 4.16% | 1.26% | -0.57% | -7.64% | -7.37% | 23.63% | 8.97% |
| 2022 | -12.62% | -6.43% | 1.51% | -9.73% | 6.95% | -6.89% | 13.11% | -4.36% | -5.22% | 14.02% | 12.02% | -3.30% |
| 2021 | 1.58% | 1.58% | 4.15% | 5.27% | 3.36% | 7.01% | 3.80% | 14.51% | -10.22% | 0.10% | -4.18% | 5.80% |
| 2020 | -6.65% | -6.83% | 7.04% | 14.98% | 0.47% | 9.01% | 4.25% | 0.52% | 1.32% | 14.51% | 1.36% | |
| Avg | -0.75% | -5.35% | -1.75% | -1.64% | 3.88% | 1.11% | 5.45% | 4.06% | -2.72% | 1.67% | 9.46% | -0.16% |
A - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
A Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
A Distribution of Daily % Changes