Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +60.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -11.3% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +71.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -139.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.35% | 15.70% | -26.43% | -27.18% | -6.67% | -7.14% | 3.08% | 35.82% | -15.38% | -9.09% | ||
| 2025 | 6.67% | -2.34% | -8.00% | 18.26% | 29.41% | -3.41% | -8.24% | 24.36% | 4.12% | -12.87% | 2.27% | 15.56% |
| 2024 | -17.07% | -4.41% | 12.31% | 9.59% | -18.75% | -4.62% | 6.45% | 10.61% | 2.74% | -16.00% | -12.70% | 9.09% |
| 2023 | -22.00% | -8.97% | 32.39% | 65.96% | -17.95% | -4.69% | 14.75% | -10.00% | 11.11% | -2.86% | -7.35% | 30.16% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | -5.56% | -5.88% | -6.25% | 0.00% | 26.67% | 426.32% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | 10.00% | -9.09% | 20.00% | 4.17% | 8.00% | -22.22% | 9.52% | -17.39% | 36.84% | -23.08% | -15.00% | 5.88% |
| 2020 | -15.79% | -6.25% | -13.33% | 15.38% | 126.67% | -26.47% | -12.00% | 4.55% | -13.04% | -10.00% | 11.11% | |
| Avg | -1.01% | -4.35% | 2.59% | 7.32% | 1.35% | 15.89% | 60.77% | 4.49% | 6.28% | -11.31% | -7.13% | 11.97% |
WRLG.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WRLG.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WRLG.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WRLG.V Distribution of Daily % Changes