Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.05% | 16.00% | -30.34% | -1.98% | -2.02% | -17.53% | 3.75% | 18.07% | -16.33% | -12.20% | ||
| 2025 | 2.90% | -15.49% | 5.00% | -4.76% | -15.83% | 0.99% | 15.69% | 1.69% | 75.00% | -20.00% | 7.14% | -2.22% |
| 2024 | -10.53% | 3.53% | 2.27% | -7.78% | -6.02% | -12.82% | 4.41% | 4.23% | 39.19% | -1.94% | -21.78% | -12.66% |
| 2023 | 0.96% | -6.67% | 23.47% | 3.31% | 16.00% | -17.93% | 0.84% | -25.00% | -3.33% | 9.20% | 13.68% | -12.04% |
| 2022 | -6.64% | 4.06% | -5.37% | -8.76% | -9.60% | -18.75% | 28.46% | -33.53% | -17.12% | 26.09% | 1.72% | -11.86% |
| 2021 | -6.01% | 18.40% | 8.45% | -7.48% | -8.75% | -8.86% | -10.53% | 13.57% | -9.56% | -4.41% | -5.53% | 2.93% |
| 2020 | -38.46% | 17.50% | 23.40% | 43.10% | 145.78% | 83.82% | 3.47% | -11.08% | -17.97% | 4.59% | -10.14% | |
| Avg | 3.79% | -2.66% | 3.00% | -0.58% | 2.41% | 10.13% | 18.06% | -2.50% | 8.11% | -1.51% | -0.03% | -7.67% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +18.1% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -7.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +23.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
TUD.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TUD.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TUD.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TUD.V Distribution of Daily % Changes