Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +28.4% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -13.2% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +41.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -10.7% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -27.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.26% | 15.00% | -33.33% | -2.17% | 28.89% | -22.41% | -13.33% | 43.59% | -7.14% | -23.08% | ||
| 2025 | 0.00% | 30.00% | 7.69% | -7.14% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.46% | 50.00% | -7.41% | 4.00% | 19.23% | 83.87% |
| 2024 | -14.29% | -8.33% | 9.09% | 41.67% | 5.88% | -22.22% | 0.00% | -28.57% | 10.00% | 27.27% | -28.57% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -21.74% | -22.22% | -14.29% | 0.00% | -16.67% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 27.27% |
| 2022 | -4.17% | 21.74% | -3.57% | -3.70% | -19.23% | -23.81% | 37.50% | -27.27% | 6.25% | -11.76% | 33.33% | 15.00% |
| 2021 | -20.69% | -6.52% | -11.63% | 2.63% | 20.51% | -27.66% | -17.65% | -7.14% | -3.85% | 20.00% | -13.33% | -7.69% |
| 2020 | -12.50% | -42.86% | 50.00% | 83.33% | 18.18% | 153.85% | 9.09% | -11.11% | 0.00% | 21.88% | 48.72% | |
| Avg | -5.65% | 5.63% | -10.66% | 8.51% | 13.88% | -13.17% | 28.40% | 3.29% | -1.89% | 6.58% | 7.09% | 27.86% |
SVRS.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SVRS.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SVRS.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SVRS.V Distribution of Daily % Changes