Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.80% | 7.29% | -21.33% | 5.82% | 2.47% | -28.15% | -26.55% | 32.63% | -30.42% | -23.19% | ||
| 2025 | 4.81% | -14.68% | -1.61% | 11.48% | 9.31% | 21.08% | 19.26% | 25.47% | 18.32% | 10.88% | 14.15% | 0.33% |
| 2024 | -29.55% | -0.54% | -14.05% | 9.43% | 27.59% | -21.62% | 9.20% | -9.47% | 22.09% | 60.00% | -23.81% | -18.75% |
| 2023 | 49.75% | -2.50% | -13.01% | -9.65% | 22.44% | 6.76% | 2.00% | -27.12% | -13.68% | -0.26% | -21.88% | -12.00% |
| 2022 | -23.88% | -10.71% | 33.45% | -25.97% | -9.71% | -26.08% | 32.73% | -1.37% | -15.97% | -9.75% | 8.61% | -32.55% |
| 2021 | 39.30% | -14.36% | 17.06% | 5.78% | -9.98% | 34.30% | 47.35% | -13.87% | 59.91% | 36.01% | -5.84% | -7.26% |
| 2020 | -18.18% | -20.83% | 33.33% | 30.26% | 1.01% | 38.00% | -7.97% | 48.03% | 6.38% | 32.00% | 7.95% | |
| Avg | 6.27% | -7.67% | -2.90% | 4.32% | 10.34% | -1.81% | 17.43% | -0.24% | 12.61% | 17.21% | 0.54% | -10.38% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +17.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -10.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +29.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -109.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
SLI.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SLI.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SLI.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SLI.V Distribution of Daily % Changes