Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +26.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -9.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +35.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +31.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -149.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.03% | -10.83% | 16.82% | -6.40% | -0.85% | -1.72% | 0.00% | 4.39% | -3.36% | 0.00% | ||
| 2025 | -3.66% | 8.86% | -1.16% | -27.06% | 29.03% | 28.75% | 1.94% | 26.67% | -4.51% | -6.30% | -5.04% | -17.70% |
| 2024 | 50.00% | 27.96% | -4.20% | 9.65% | 12.80% | -7.09% | 11.45% | -4.79% | -9.35% | -36.51% | -1.25% | 3.80% |
| 2023 | 60.00% | 0.00% | -12.50% | 14.29% | 100.00% | 43.75% | 91.30% | -2.27% | 2.33% | 13.64% | -16.00% | 47.62% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% | -16.67% | 40.00% | 14.29% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -25.00% | 16.67% | 14.29% | -37.50% |
| 2021 | 0.00% | 25.00% | 20.00% | -16.67% | 20.00% | 0.00% | -16.67% | 0.00% | 20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -16.67% |
| 2020 | -28.57% | 0.00% | 40.00% | -14.29% | -16.67% | -20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% | -33.33% | |
| Avg | 22.56% | 3.20% | 5.57% | -0.41% | 26.67% | 8.76% | 9.72% | 3.43% | -2.84% | -2.08% | 7.00% | -8.96% |
RML.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RML.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RML.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RML.V Distribution of Daily % Changes