Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.95% | 14.78% | -18.56% | 28.37% | 12.68% | -1.93% | -14.75% | 6.15% | -14.86% | -29.79% | ||
| 2025 | 1.30% | 11.54% | 2.30% | -43.82% | -8.00% | 6.52% | 57.14% | 5.19% | 29.63% | -2.86% | 21.57% | 57.26% |
| 2024 | -20.00% | 95.00% | -17.95% | -12.50% | 7.14% | -16.67% | 8.00% | 129.63% | 22.58% | 31.58% | -13.00% | -11.49% |
| 2023 | 100.00% | 6.58% | -12.35% | -19.72% | 87.72% | -17.76% | -13.64% | -5.26% | 12.50% | -14.81% | -56.52% | -16.67% |
| 2022 | 44.00% | 2.78% | -62.16% | -14.29% | -25.00% | 33.33% | -25.00% | 22.22% | -9.09% | -20.00% | 325.00% | 11.76% |
| 2021 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -14.29% | 16.67% | -28.57% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -16.00% | -19.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 47.06% |
| 2020 | 25.00% | -40.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | 25.00% | 20.00% | 33.33% | -37.50% | 60.00% | -12.50% | |
| Avg | 23.87% | 22.24% | -23.29% | -6.47% | 6.57% | 5.26% | 5.25% | 23.13% | 7.86% | -7.27% | 56.17% | 12.57% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +56.2% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -23.3% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +61.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +22.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -24.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
QTWO.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
QTWO.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
QTWO.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
QTWO.V Distribution of Daily % Changes