Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Sep is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Sep averages +15.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -3.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +21.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +16.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +213.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
PML.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.50% | 77.78% | -12.50% | 51.43% | 25.47% | 15.79% | 0.65% | 20.00% | -13.44% | -21.74% | ||
| 2025 | 34.38% | 0.00% | -9.30% | 12.82% | 11.36% | 8.16% | -13.21% | 4.35% | 16.67% | -28.57% | -20.00% | 25.00% |
| 2024 | -7.69% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.67% | 0.00% | -21.43% | 54.55% | 82.35% | -3.23% | 26.67% | -15.79% |
| 2023 | -14.29% | -8.33% | 18.18% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.69% | -7.14% | -7.69% | 8.33% | -23.08% | 10.00% | 18.18% |
| 2022 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 11.76% | -10.53% | -5.88% | -12.50% | 0.00% | -21.43% | 9.09% | 8.33% | 0.00% | 7.69% |
| 2021 | -5.88% | 25.00% | 5.00% | -19.05% | -5.88% | -12.50% | -14.29% | 0.00% | 16.67% | 28.57% | -11.11% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | -11.11% | -12.50% | 28.57% | -11.11% | 50.00% | 33.33% | -12.50% | -14.29% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 41.67% | |
| Avg | 4.21% | 11.90% | 0.09% | 9.04% | 4.38% | 8.09% | -3.15% | 5.32% | 15.05% | -2.99% | 0.93% | 12.79% |
PML.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PML.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PML.V Distribution of Daily % Changes