Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 3Y.
Dec averages +19.5% with a 100% win rate across 3 years of history.
Nov shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Nov averages -11.5% with only a 33% win rate across 3 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +27.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 3Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +79.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.16% | 33.47% | -24.77% | 7.82% | 24.05% | -17.54% | 22.39% | 46.95% | 8.51% | -18.55% | ||
| 2025 | 45.71% | -23.53% | -34.62% | -6.86% | 24.21% | -3.39% | 21.05% | 6.52% | 34.17% | -1.23% | 1.86% | 53.96% |
| 2024 | -18.60% | -2.86% | 29.41% | 11.36% | 6.12% | -9.62% | -2.13% | -11.74% | -6.40% | -3.16% | -24.46% | 0.72% |
| 2023 | 31.84% | -3.72% | -24.28% | 16.35% | 5.47% | -17.30% | 1.67% | -3.29% | -11.91% | 3.86% | ||
| Avg | 7.65% | 2.36% | 0.47% | 2.15% | 7.53% | -3.55% | 11.70% | 6.11% | 9.49% | -2.56% | -11.50% | 19.52% |
PALI.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 4 years
PALI.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
3 years of data
PALI.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2023 to 2026
PALI.V Distribution of Daily % Changes