Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +6.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -7.8% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +3.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -17.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.29% | 41.61% | -30.62% | -10.42% | -4.46% | -10.62% | -2.32% | 25.82% | -5.66% | -17.50% | ||
| 2025 | -1.71% | -22.61% | 20.22% | 9.81% | 6.81% | 16.33% | 2.40% | 25.08% | 27.27% | -7.98% | 12.56% | -5.68% |
| 2024 | -11.69% | -21.18% | 7.84% | -0.69% | -3.48% | -7.94% | 7.84% | 2.91% | 2.12% | -11.76% | -1.96% | -6.40% |
| 2023 | 36.74% | -25.22% | 11.69% | 9.86% | -14.36% | -1.45% | -5.07% | -24.14% | -10.68% | 11.70% | -11.85% | -0.52% |
| 2022 | 6.90% | 1.38% | -4.77% | -1.19% | -27.62% | -31.15% | -17.61% | 24.51% | -2.20% | -9.82% | 14.11% | -9.70% |
| 2021 | 1.58% | 2.98% | -8.06% | -1.51% | -0.14% | -2.51% | -11.57% | -17.61% | -1.76% | 3.19% | -5.61% | -16.80% |
| Avg | 5.09% | -3.84% | -0.62% | 0.98% | -7.21% | -6.22% | -4.39% | 6.10% | 1.51% | -2.93% | 1.45% | -7.82% |
OGG.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
OGG.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
OGG.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OGG.V Distribution of Daily % Changes