Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +36.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +52.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +11.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -18.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
NCX.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.76% | 15.91% | -2.29% | -3.34% | 5.19% | -6.58% | 15.14% | 40.98% | -15.40% | -24.62% | ||
| 2025 | 9.30% | 25.53% | 25.42% | -0.68% | 25.17% | 18.48% | 12.84% | 2.44% | 14.29% | 30.56% | 5.32% | 32.32% |
| 2024 | 0.00% | -15.00% | 52.94% | -13.46% | -1.11% | -19.10% | 47.22% | -12.26% | 5.38% | -5.10% | -5.38% | -2.27% |
| 2023 | 12.50% | -8.33% | 6.06% | 8.57% | 0.00% | -15.79% | 18.75% | -5.26% | 33.33% | 0.00% | 16.67% | 42.86% |
| 2022 | -1.19% | -3.61% | 0.00% | -7.50% | -24.32% | -25.00% | -4.76% | -2.50% | 0.00% | -12.82% | 0.00% | -5.88% |
| 2021 | 5.36% | -11.86% | 1.92% | 22.64% | -1.54% | -18.75% | 0.00% | -21.15% | -17.07% | 29.41% | -9.09% | 110.00% |
| 2020 | -25.00% | -11.11% | 62.50% | 0.00% | 7.69% | 92.86% | -18.52% | 18.18% | 23.08% | 25.00% | 40.00% | |
| Avg | 4.46% | -3.20% | 10.42% | 9.82% | 0.48% | -8.44% | 26.01% | -2.33% | 5.53% | 10.85% | 5.42% | 36.17% |
NCX.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NCX.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NCX.V Distribution of Daily % Changes