Seasonality
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Seasonality
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MOON.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +40.0% with a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -19.4% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +47.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +37.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.21% | 14.81% | 30.58% | 10.21% | 7.75% | -15.89% | -18.67% | 15.03% | -15.68% | -23.10% | ||
| 2025 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -22.78% | 7.19% | 5.03% | 4.79% | 5.18% | -1.74% | -4.42% | 12.35% | 9.62% | 20.30% |
| 2024 | 16.67% | -14.29% | 0.00% | -16.67% | 0.00% | -20.00% | 0.00% | 300.00% | 68.75% | 25.93% | 5.88% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -60.00% | 12.50% | -22.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -14.29% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | 50.00% | -50.00% | 0.00% | -33.33% | 50.00% | 0.00% | -33.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | -25.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | -25.00% | -16.67% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | 0.00% | -33.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | 75.00% | 14.29% | |
| Avg | 2.81% | 7.22% | -19.36% | 6.65% | -9.68% | 0.32% | 5.22% | 39.99% | 2.05% | 11.93% | 15.08% | 5.76% |
MOON.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MOON.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MOON.V Distribution of Daily % Changes